S&P 500: Seasonal Correction

S&P 500: Seasonal Correction

The seasonal correction by #SPX that we discussed would likely happen in Aug/Sep has materialized. In this video we look at this correction within the context of history to better understand the movements in the bond market. We also discuss…

S&P500: Accounting for the Money Supply

S&P500: Accounting for the Money Supply

The #SP500 has experienced a noticeable pullback over the last few weeks. This is a seasonal correction that we discussed many times and were prepared for by looking at historical trends. However, accounting for the money supply, or M2, can…

S&P 500 Seasonal Correction

S&P 500 Seasonal Correction

The #SP500 is undergoing the typical correction that it normally experiences in Aug/Sep of the pre-election year. Whether #SPX recovers to new highs in Q4 will likely depend on if the recession risk materializes by then or not. We also…

NASDAQ Seasonality

NASDAQ Seasonality

The historical record shows that in the last 6 pre-election years, the #NASDAQ has had a seasonal correction in the Aug-Sep timeframe. Is that happenings again? In this video, we look at this seasonality. We also compare this to #Bitcoin…

S&P 500 ROI After Yield Curve Inversion

S&P 500 ROI After Yield Curve Inversion

The return on investment (ROI) of the #SP500 after yield curve inversion may be an interesting way to view the market. Given the rally by #stocks, it may be useful to compare this to prior rallies that occurred after yield…

Labor Market Conditions Index

Labor Market Conditions Index

The Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) are two indicators created to measure the current state and momentum of labor market conditions. The first indicator, referred to as the level indicator, measures the level of activity in labor…

S&P 500: Yearly Close | 2023 Outlook

S&P 500: Yearly Close | 2023 Outlook

We have finally ushered in the yearly close for the #SP500. Now that it is in, let’s talk about where #stocks stand and the outlook for 2023. With an inverted yield curve, a recession seems like the base case to…

Inflation Below Consensus | Effect on Risk Assets

Inflation Below Consensus | Effect on Risk Assets

The most recent #CPI data is now in and #inflation has once again come in below expectations. Risk-assets like #stocks an #Bitcoin have moved up in the short-term. However, does a #recession still loom in 2023? In this video we…

S&P 500 Bear Market

S&P 500 Bear Market

Has the #stock market (#SP500) been rejected off the downtrend line for the 4th time in a row? In this video we look at the current #SP500 bear market in the context of prior bear markets. We also spend some…

The United States: Heading Into a Recession (What it Means for Stocks)

The United States: Heading Into a Recession (What it Means for Stocks)

The United States is likely heading into a recession in 2023. While there are plenty of academic arguments that we already went into a recession in 2022 based on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, there is also the counterpoint…